Showing posts with label Nikkei. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nikkei. Show all posts

Monday, December 12, 2011

Asian stocks gain on EU progress, euro falls on caution

Asian stocks gained on Monday after Europe took a step towards fiscal union, but the euro fell amid concerns the euro zone's fragile safety is still insufficient to prevent its sovereign debt crisis from spreading.

Twenty-six of the 27 European Union leaders on Friday agreed to pursue stricter budget rules for the single currency area and also to have euro zone states and others provide up to 200 billion euros in bilateral loans to the International Monetary Fund to help tackle the crisis.

A media report that China planned a new USD 300 billion vehicle to invest in Europe and the United States also buoyed investor sentiment, lifting US stocks on Friday.

"There was some progress made in Europe, such as having an accord on funding, which helps negative sentiment to recede and risk-on mood to return," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

"The fact that the IMF was involved and China was reportedly planning to invest in Europe shouldn't be overlooked either, as having global lenders interested in Europe was also a focal point in gauging the progress in the debt crisis," he said.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.2 percent on Monday, after sliding as much as 2.8 percent on Friday for a weekly drop of 3.5 percent on concerns over the EU summit's outcome. Japan's Nikkei stock average gained 1.3 percent.

Asian credit markets firmed on Monday on easing risk aversion, with spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index narrowing by several basis points on Monday, but trading volume was thin.

Widespread views that the euro zone debt woes were far from being resolved pushed the single currency down 0.2 percent to USD 1.3350, off Friday's high of USD 1.3434. The dollar index, measured against six major currencies .DXY, inched up 0.1 percent, weighing on gold's safe-haven appeal.

Officials gave a guarded assessment to the result of the EU summit. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said an agreement for deeper economic integration was a step in the right direction but not a complete solution for the crisis.

While bilateral loans to the IMF would help beef up its resources to help struggling euro zone economies when needed, the volume at the euro zone's bailout fund was still seen insufficient to safeguard core euro zone economies from the contagion of the debt crisis.

The capacity of a permanent bailout fund was capped and it was not granted a banking licence.

That will keep intense pressure on the European Central Bank to take on a role as lender of the last resort to help resolve the debt crisis, which has intensified a credit contraction in the euro zone.

"Near-term, there remains inadequate firepower to backstop large euro-area sovereigns; we expect that a reluctant ECB will eventually have to adopt this role," Standard Chartered wrote in a note to clients.

Until the funding scheme is strengthened further, financial strains will persist, as worries about banks' exposure to euro zone sovereign bonds have made them reluctant to lend dollars to each other.

Banks, pressed to beef-up their capital hit by plunging euro zone bond prices, could face additional pressure this week as rating agency Standard & Poor's will follow up on its decision after placing all euro zone sovereigns on creditwatch negative.

Debt yields of highly-indebted countries such as Italy and Spain stayed vulnerable, barely contained by ECB buying in the secondary market. Italy and Spain are scheduled to issue new debt this week and their borrowing costs are likely to continue to rise.

Rising borrowing costs, in turn, will make it difficult to pursue fiscal discipline.

The US economy continued to show resilience, with consumer sentiment rising to its highest level in six months in early December on signs of a better jobs market and an improving economy.

Data from EPFR Global on Friday showed investor preference for US stock funds, with cumulative outflows of 0.12 percent of assets under management since the start of the fourth quarter versus 1.05 percent for Europe Equity Funds and 3.6 percent for Japan Equity Funds.

Analysts said markets will return their focus to the slowing global economy, weighing on the euro and risk assets.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Asian stocks, euro fall after S&P downgrade warning

Asian stocks and the euro fell on Today after ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned it might downgrade euro zone countries en masse if European leaders fail to produce a credible plan to solve the region's debt crisis at a summit later this week.

The unprecedented warning brought to a halt a rally in global equities that began last week and had continued on Monday, when the leaders of France and Germany agreed a plan aimed at guiding the region out of its two-year-old crisis.

European stocks were expected to fall back from a five-week high struck in the previous session, with major regional bourses seen opening as much as 0.8 percent lower.

"We are entering a critical stage," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities in Tokyo.

"There are high market expectations for positive developments out of the European leaders' meeting this week and if there are any indications that decisions will be pushed back it will have negative consequences for the market."

Oil and copper prices also retreated after the S&P statement, which came late in the US trading day, while Wall Street index futures fell and US Treasury yields edged down, indicating investors were seeking safety in the dollar.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.8 percent, with the heaviest losses in the growth-sensitive materials sector.

Tokyo's Nikkei share average fell 1.4 percent, while S&P 500 futures eased 0.6 percent, pointing to a lower start for Wall Street after Monday's 1 percent gain.

Financial bookmakers called the FTSE 100 to open down 0.8 percent, Germany's DAX to fall 0.7 percent and France's CAC-40 to slip 0.5 percent.

S&P said it had told 15 of the 17 euro zone countries, including Germany, France and four others with the top AAA credit rating, that it might downgrade them within 90 days, depending on the outcome of Friday's summit.